Whether we pursue horizontal or vertical change, there are always stakes involved. These stakes represent what we fear losing in the face of change. It doesn’t matter how objectively likely these losses are, or even if they’re reasonable. What matters is that they feel real to the individual or culture standing to lose them, and they react to change accordingly.

We can all think of examples of people who refuse to change, clinging to something out of fear, no matter how trivial that fear might seem to us. Even more, we can likely recall times in our own lives when we stayed with something too long, held onto an outdated belief, or remained in a relationship out of fear of losing something familiar. Perhaps we’re doing this now.

In the horizontal change discussed in the first article, the stakes are typically low. For example, we don’t go on vacation to transform our lives; we go to take a break with minimal consequences to the status quo. Similarly, companies often pursue professional development to enhance staff performance—not to disrupt the fundamental dynamics of the organization. Horizontal change, by its nature, is the low-stakes option.

Vertical change, however, is different. It challenges the status quo and pushes us to rethink our ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving. We might not change partners, but we change how we handle conflict within the relationship. We might not change jobs, but we question how our employer approaches challenges. We might not move, but we reconsider our lifestyle to focus on what truly contributes to our happiness and ability to serve others. We might not change careers, but we can no longer settle for how we’ve always done things.

Vertical change often arrives without our choosing. Life passages—such as birth, marriage, divorce, severe illness, and death—represent some of the most significant vertical changes. These events fundamentally alter how we view ourselves and the world. The same applies to organizations, which go through cycles of growth, development, and decline. Often, these shifts are unconscious and take time, effort, and collective recognition (through ritual or ceremony) to become fully aware.

Sometimes, however, we choose vertical change. Why? Because the costs of staying the same—what we call the Stagnation Cost—begin to outweigh the stakes of what we fear losing. Unfortunately, by the time we reach this realization, we’ve already paid heavily to the tax collector of fear.

Here are a few examples of when change could be a choice, along with the stakes and stagnation costs involved:

Individuals:

• Career:
  • Stakes of Change: We resist changing careers, even when we are deeply unfulfilled because we fear losing our sense of identity. The familiar role provides safety, even if it doesn’t bring satisfaction, and leaving it could make us feel insecure or inadequate.
  • Stagnation Cost: By resisting career change, we face dissatisfaction, burnout, and missed opportunities. Over time, mental and physical health, relationships, and overall quality of life decline. We miss out on growth, fulfillment, and even financial improvement.
• Relationship:
  • Stakes of Change: We avoid addressing deep-seated conflicts or dysfunctional patterns because we fear losing the relationship itself or dealing with the discomfort that comes with rethinking long-held dynamics.
  • Stagnation Cost: Ignoring conflict leads to resentment, distance, and, eventually, the breakdown of the relationship. Prolonged stress and dissatisfaction hurt both partners’ well-being, turning the relationship toxic.
• Social Status:
  • Stakes of Change: We hesitate to adopt new behaviors or beliefs that would make us stand out or be ostracized by a group. We fear rejection, loss of approval, and isolation.
  • Stagnation Cost: By suppressing our true selves, we create internal conflict and fail to form meaningful connections with others. This avoidance leads to the isolation we feared, while also robbing us of opportunities for personal growth and authentic relationships.
• Health:
  • Stakes of Change: A heart patient, for example, may be advised to make lifestyle adjustments to avoid early death, but the fear of disrupting ingrained habits makes change difficult. Research shows that only 1 in 7 patients make these changes, and just 10% of heart surgery patients adjust their lifestyles post-operation.
  • Stagnation Cost: Continuing poor health habits leads to increased risk of chronic disease and a shorter lifespan. As health deteriorates, medical costs rise, energy declines, and overall quality of life suffers.

Just as individuals experience stakes and costs, so do collectives—whether culture, country, organization, or team:

Collective:

• Tradition and Identity:
  • Stakes of Change: A culture may resist shifts in social norms—such as changing gender roles or family structures—because these traditions are seen as essential to its identity. The fear is that by losing these traditions, the culture will lose its heritage and continuity.
  • Stagnation Cost: Cultures that refuse to adapt become less relevant and fail to engage meaningfully with social, economic, or technological progress. This leads to growing divides across generations and a decline in cultural influence.
• Economy:
  • Stakes of Change: A country or industry may resist transitioning to new energy sources despite clear long-term benefits. The fear stems from potential job losses in established industries and uncertainty about unfamiliar technologies.
  • Stagnation Cost: By resisting necessary economic changes, industries risk obsolescence. Countries or companies that fail to innovate lose competitiveness, resulting in job losses, economic instability, and reduced opportunities for growth.
• Power:
  • Stakes of Change: Long-standing power structures within organizations resist shifts that challenge their control. Whether formal or informal, the fear is losing privileged status or influence over resources and decision-making.
  • Stagnation Cost: Resistance to redistributing power fosters internal divisions, employee dissatisfaction, and disengagement. Innovation declines, turnover increases, and the organization’s overall productivity suffers.
• Belief Systems:
  • Stakes of Change: Cultures may refuse to accept advancements or social shifts that challenge religious or moral beliefs. They fear losing their moral authority or undermining foundational values.
  • Stagnation Cost This refusal widens the gap between cultural institutions and the general population, particularly younger generations. Over time, participation and relevance decline, eroding the culture’s influence in shaping future values.

Across these examples, we see that the costs of staying the same often mirror the very losses we fear. In trying to protect what we have, we risk losing more than we ever anticipated. It’s like swimming against a current that inevitably overtakes us: we fight for control, but end up exhausted, missing opportunities along the way.

Over time, the effort to resist change drains us, and the inertia fueled by fear costs us far more than the change itself might have. Embracing change, on the other hand, offers new opportunities for growth, both personally and collectively.

‍

Using the Stake/Cost Equation to Motivate Change

A key step in creating meaningful change is understanding that our default focus will usually be on potential losses rather than gains. Knowing this, we must deliberately assess the costs of remaining the same. This process may not come naturally and requires dedicated effort—a combination of thought experiment and mindset shift.

Consider this analogy: an amateur economist understands that a tax refund is essentially a free loan to the government, where the opportunity cost is the loss of potential investment earnings. Similarly, when we resist change, it might *feel* like we’re avoiding risk, but in reality, we’re losing valuable time, attention, fulfillment, or worse by not beginning the process of change.

When leading groups through change, we can motivate our teams and communities by helping them visualize the opportunities, build a shared understanding of the risks, and make the opaque costs of stagnation more visible.

This is just the start of the change process. Along the way, there will be twists, turns, and numerous chances—both conscious and unconscious—to derail progress.

In the next part of this series, we will explore the biological, psychological, and social resistance to change, and how to help ourselves and others overcome these barriers.